15  County Risk Score

The Shared Savings Program County-level Aggregate Expenditure and Risk Score Data on Assignable Beneficiaries Public Use File (PUF) for the Medicare Shared Savings Program provides aggregate data consisting of per capita Parts A and B FFS expenditures, average CMS-HCC prospective risk scores and total person-years for Shared Savings Program assignable beneficiaries by Medicare enrollment type (ESRD, Disabled, Aged/Dual Eligible, Aged/Non-Dual Eligible).

Metadata

       [ROWS] 3225 
     [FIELDS] 21 
   [MODIFIED] 2025-05-06 
[PERIODICITY] Annually [R/P1Y] 
   [TEMPORAL] 2019-01-01 • 2023-12-31 
 [DICTIONARY] https://data.cms.gov/resources/county-level-aggregate-expenditure-and-risk-score-data-on-assignable-beneficiaries-data-dictionary-0 
       [SITE] https://data.cms.gov/medicare-shared-savings-program/county-level-aggregate-expenditure-and-risk-score-data-on-assignable-beneficiaries 
 [REFERENCES] https://data.cms.gov/resources/county-level-aggregate-expenditure-and-risk-score-data-on-assignable-beneficiaries-methodology 
  [RESOURCES] https://data.cms.gov/data-api/v1/dataset-resources/5f9f1216-6fd9-455d-bfbc-0efade687a4e 
   [DOWNLOAD] https://data.cms.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/a92251be-d800-4b57-b7b0-a37c3107421b/County_Level_FFS_Data_for_Shared_Savings_Program_Benchmark_PUF_2023_2024_2025_Starters_oc2.csv 

Resources

[CSV] 458K 2023 County-level Aggregate Expenditure and Risk Score Data on Assignable Beneficiaries oc2
<https://data.cms.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/a92251be-d800-4b57-b7b0-a37c3107421b/County_Level_FFS_Data_for_Shared_Savings_Program_Benchmark_PUF_2023_2024_2025_Starters_oc2.csv>
[PDF] 266K 2023 County-level Aggregate Expenditure and Risk Score Data on Assignable Beneficiaries Methodology
<https://data.cms.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/UPDATE_%20County-level_FFS_Data_for_Shared_Savings_Program_Benchmark_PUF_Methodology.pdf>
[PDF] 193K 2023 County-level Aggregate Expenditure and Risk Score Data on Assignable Beneficiaries Data Dictionary
<https://data.cms.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/County_Lvl_FFS_Data_SSP_Benchmark_PUF_Data_Dictionary-2025.pdf>

Dictionary

YEAR
Calendar year (CY) for which assignable
beneficiaries are determined and per capita
expenditures, average risk scores, and person
years are calculated.

STATE_NAME
State name

COUNTY_NAME
County name

STATE_ID
2-digit SSA state code

COUNTY_ID
3-digit SSA county code.

PER_CAPITA_EXP_ESRD
Annualized, truncated, weighted mean total
expenditures per ESRD assignable beneficiary
person year in the county.

AVG_RISK_SCORE_ESRD
Final mean prospective CMS-HCC risk score for
assignable beneficiaries in ESRD enrollment type
in the county, based on the year's applicable risk
adjustment model, renormalized so that the mean
national FFS risk score equals 1.0.

AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_ESRD
Final mean demographic risk score for assignable
beneficiaries in ESRD enrollment type in the
county, based on the year's applicable risk
adjustment model, renormalized so that the mean
national FFS risk score equals 1.0.

PERSON_YEARS_ESRD
Number of assignable beneficiaries with ESRD
enrollment type in the county, adjusted for the
total number of months that each beneficiary was
classified as ESRD and was enrolled in Part A and
Part B and was not enrolled in a Medicare Group
Health Plan.

PER_CAPITA_EXP_DIS
Annualized, truncated, weighted mean total
expenditures per DISABLED assignable beneficiary
person year in the county.

AVG_RISK_SCORE_DIS
Final mean prospective CMS HCC risk score for
assignable beneficiaries in DISABLED enrollment
type in the county, based on the applicable risk
adjustment model for that year, renormalized so
that the mean national FFS risk score for the
assignable DISABLED population equals 1.0.

AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_DIS
Final, mean demographic risk score for assignable
beneficiaries in DISABLED enrollment type in the
county, based on the applicable risk adjustment
model for that year, renormalized so that the
mean national FFS risk score for the assignable
DISABLED population equals 1.0.

PERSON_YEARS_DIS
Number of assignable beneficiaries with DISABLED
enrollment type in the county, adjusted for the
total number of months that each beneficiary was
classified as DISABLED and was enrolled in Part
A and Part B and was not enrolled in a Medicare
Group Health Plan.

PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGDU
Annualized, truncated, weighted mean total
expenditures per AGED/DUAL assignable beneficiary
person year in the county.

AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGDU
Final mean prospective CMS - HCC risk score for
assignable beneficiaries in AGED/DUAL enrollment
type in the county, based on the applicable risk
adjustment model for that year, renormalized so
that the mean national FFS risk score for the
assignable AGED / DUAL population equals 1.0.

AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGDU
Final, mean demographic risk score for assignable
beneficiaries in AGED/DUAL enrollment type in the
county, based on the applicable risk adjustment
model for that year, renormalized so that the
mean national FFS risk score for the assignable
AGED/DUAL population equals 1.0.

PERSON_YEARS_AGDU
Number of assignable beneficiaries with AGED/DUAL
enrollment type in the county, adjusted for the
total number of months that each beneficiary was
classified as AGED/DUAL and was enrolled in Part
A and Part B and was not enrolled in a Medicare
Group Health Plan.

PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGND
Annualized, truncated, weighted mean total
expenditures per AGED/NON-DUAL assignable
beneficiary person year in the county.

AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGND
Final mean prospective CMS-HCC risk score
for assignable beneficiaries in AGED/NON-DUAL
enrollment type in the county, based on the
applicable risk adjustment model for that year,
renormalized so that the mean national FFS risk
score for the assignable AGED/NON-DUAL population
equals 1.0.

AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGND
Final, mean demographic risk score for assignable
beneficiaries in AGED/NON-DUAL enrollment type
in the county, based on the applicable risk
adjustment model for that year, renormalized so
that the mean national FFS risk score for the
assignable AGED/NON-DUAL population equals 1.0.

PERSON_YEARS_AGND
Number of assignable beneficiaries with
AGED/NON-DUAL enrollment type in the county,
adjusted for the total number of months that each
beneficiary was classified as AGED/DUAL and was
enrolled in Part A and Part B and was not enrolled
in a Medicare Group Health Plan.

Data

# A tibble: 3,225 × 21
    YEAR STATE_NAME COUNTY_NAME STATE_ID COUNTY_ID PER_CAPITA_EXP_ESRD
                                        
 1  2023 ALABAMA    AUTAUGA     01       000                    84037.
 2  2023 ALABAMA    BALDWIN     01       010                    76844.
 3  2023 ALABAMA    BARBOUR     01       020                    87442.
 4  2023 ALABAMA    BIBB        01       030                    81672.
 5  2023 ALABAMA    BLOUNT      01       040                    79360.
 6  2023 ALABAMA    BULLOCK     01       050                    82272.
 7  2023 ALABAMA    BUTLER      01       060                    58079.
 8  2023 ALABAMA    CALHOUN     01       070                   104013.
 9  2023 ALABAMA    CHAMBERS    01       080                    74734.
10  2023 ALABAMA    CHEROKEE    01       090                    82545.
# ℹ 3,215 more rows
# ℹ 15 more variables: AVG_RISK_SCORE_ESRD , AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_ESRD ,
#   PERSON_YEARS_ESRD , PER_CAPITA_EXP_DIS ,
#   AVG_RISK_SCORE_DIS , AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_DIS ,
#   PERSON_YEARS_DIS , PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGDU ,
#   AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGDU , AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGDU ,
#   PERSON_YEARS_AGDU , PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGND , …

Overview

resp (3225 rows and 21 variables, 21 shown)

ID | Name                 | Type      |     Missings |               Values |             N
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
1  | YEAR                 | integer   |     0 (0.0%) |                 2023 | 3225 (100.0%)
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
2  | STATE_NAME           | character |     0 (0.0%) |              ALABAMA |   67 (  2.1%)
   |                      |           |              |               ALASKA |   29 (  0.9%)
   |                      |           |              |       AMERICAN SAMOA |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |              ARIZONA |   15 (  0.5%)
   |                      |           |              |             ARKANSAS |   75 (  2.3%)
   |                      |           |              |           CALIFORNIA |   58 (  1.8%)
   |                      |           |              |             COLORADO |   64 (  2.0%)
   |                      |           |              |          CONNECTICUT |    8 (  0.2%)
   |                      |           |              |             DELAWARE |    3 (  0.1%)
   |                      |           |              | DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                (...) |              
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
3  | COUNTY_NAME          | character |     0 (0.0%) |            ABBEVILLE |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |               ACADIA |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |             ACCOMACK |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                  ADA |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                ADAIR |    4 (  0.1%)
   |                      |           |              |                ADAMS |   12 (  0.4%)
   |                      |           |              |              ADDISON |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |             ADJUNTAS |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |               AGUADA |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |            AGUADILLA |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                (...) |              
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
4  | STATE_ID             | character |     0 (0.0%) |                   01 |   67 (  2.1%)
   |                      |           |              |                   02 |   29 (  0.9%)
   |                      |           |              |                   03 |   15 (  0.5%)
   |                      |           |              |                   04 |   75 (  2.3%)
   |                      |           |              |                   05 |   58 (  1.8%)
   |                      |           |              |                   06 |   64 (  2.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                   07 |    8 (  0.2%)
   |                      |           |              |                   08 |    3 (  0.1%)
   |                      |           |              |                   09 |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                   10 |   67 (  2.1%)
   |                      |           |              |                (...) |              
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
5  | COUNTY_ID            | character |     0 (0.0%) |                  000 |   48 (  1.5%)
   |                      |           |              |                  010 |   50 (  1.6%)
   |                      |           |              |                  011 |    2 (  0.1%)
   |                      |           |              |                  013 |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                  016 |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                  020 |   50 (  1.6%)
   |                      |           |              |                  025 |    1 (  0.0%)
   |                      |           |              |                  030 |   47 (  1.5%)
   |                      |           |              |                  040 |   46 (  1.4%)
   |                      |           |              |                  050 |   48 (  1.5%)
   |                      |           |              |                (...) |              
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
6  | PER_CAPITA_EXP_ESRD  | numeric   | 1155 (35.8%) |    [46013.2, 178537] |          2070
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
7  | AVG_RISK_SCORE_ESRD  | numeric   | 1155 (35.8%) |          [0.73, 1.3] |          2070
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
8  | AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_ESRD | numeric   | 1155 (35.8%) |           [0.9, 1.1] |          2070
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
9  | PERSON_YEARS_ESRD    | numeric   | 1155 (35.8%) |      [5.33, 5768.67] |          2070
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
10 | PER_CAPITA_EXP_DIS   | numeric   |    88 (2.7%) |   [1816.29, 39370.1] |          3137
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
11 | AVG_RISK_SCORE_DIS   | numeric   |    88 (2.7%) |         [0.45, 2.32] |          3137
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
12 | AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_DIS  | numeric   |    88 (2.7%) |          [0.8, 1.18] |          3137
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
13 | PERSON_YEARS_DIS     | numeric   |    88 (2.7%) |        [4.25, 38627] |          3137
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
14 | PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGDU  | numeric   |   124 (3.8%) |   [5948.86, 71886.6] |          3101
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
15 | AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGDU  | numeric   |   124 (3.8%) |          [0.6, 1.59] |          3101
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
16 | AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGDU | numeric   |   124 (3.8%) |         [0.83, 1.17] |          3101
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
17 | PERSON_YEARS_AGDU    | numeric   |   124 (3.8%) |          [7, 136041] |          3101
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
18 | PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGND  | numeric   |     4 (0.1%) |   [2087.22, 29489.5] |          3221
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
19 | AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGND  | numeric   |     4 (0.1%) |          [0.7, 1.45] |          3221
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
20 | AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGND | numeric   |     4 (0.1%) |          [0.9, 1.51] |          3221
---+----------------------+-----------+--------------+----------------------+--------------
21 | PERSON_YEARS_AGND    | numeric   |     4 (0.1%) |         [10, 241148] |          3221
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Distribution

Variable             |     Mean |       SD |      IQR |                Range
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR                 |  2023.00 |     0.00 |     0.00 |   [2023.00, 2023.00]
PER_CAPITA_EXP_ESRD  | 91206.00 | 15842.26 | 19596.91 | [46013.23, 1.79e+05]
AVG_RISK_SCORE_ESRD  |     1.00 |     0.07 |     0.09 |         [0.73, 1.30]
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_ESRD |     1.00 |     0.03 |     0.03 |         [0.90, 1.10]
PERSON_YEARS_ESRD    |    74.37 |   202.88 |    44.31 |      [5.33, 5768.67]
PER_CAPITA_EXP_DIS   | 11827.65 |  3278.14 |  3430.98 |  [1816.29, 39370.11]
AVG_RISK_SCORE_DIS   |     0.97 |     0.13 |     0.15 |         [0.45, 2.32]
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_DIS  |     1.00 |     0.04 |     0.05 |         [0.80, 1.18]
PERSON_YEARS_DIS     |   625.20 |  1447.58 |   470.38 |     [4.25, 38627.00]
PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGDU  | 21124.98 |  5589.22 |  6407.57 |  [5948.86, 71886.60]
AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGDU  |     1.03 |     0.13 |     0.17 |         [0.60, 1.59]
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGDU |     1.04 |     0.04 |     0.04 |         [0.83, 1.17]
PERSON_YEARS_AGDU    |   566.87 |  3061.50 |   266.21 |     [7.00, 1.36e+05]
PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGND  | 11687.80 |  1817.81 |  1838.63 |  [2087.22, 29489.54]
AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGND  |     1.01 |     0.08 |     0.11 |         [0.70, 1.45]
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGND |     1.03 |     0.04 |     0.04 |         [0.90, 1.51]
PERSON_YEARS_AGND    |  5654.93 | 13197.86 |  3787.12 |    [10.00, 2.41e+05]

Variable             | Skewness | Kurtosis |    n | n_Missing
-------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR                 |          |          | 3225 |         0
PER_CAPITA_EXP_ESRD  |     0.61 |     1.17 | 2070 |      1155
AVG_RISK_SCORE_ESRD  |     0.08 |     0.52 | 2070 |      1155
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_ESRD |     0.32 |     0.47 | 2070 |      1155
PERSON_YEARS_ESRD    |    14.66 |   342.82 | 2070 |      1155
PER_CAPITA_EXP_DIS   |     1.48 |     7.70 | 3137 |        88
AVG_RISK_SCORE_DIS   |     0.91 |     7.29 | 3137 |        88
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_DIS  |     0.06 |     0.87 | 3137 |        88
PERSON_YEARS_DIS     |    10.69 |   206.03 | 3137 |        88
PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGDU  |     1.08 |     3.57 | 3101 |       124
AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGDU  |    -0.14 |     0.38 | 3101 |       124
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGDU |    -0.54 |     1.46 | 3101 |       124
PERSON_YEARS_AGDU    |    30.66 |  1264.38 | 3101 |       124
PER_CAPITA_EXP_AGND  |    -0.04 |     6.87 | 3221 |         4
AVG_RISK_SCORE_AGND  |    -0.07 |     0.76 | 3221 |         4
AVG_DEMOG_SCORE_AGND |     1.95 |    10.40 | 3221 |         4
PERSON_YEARS_AGND    |     7.95 |   101.75 | 3221 |         4